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Nov 29, 2013
11/13
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go ahead, courtney. >> that's right, steve. hey, you know, it's actually a really good cross section of the midwest consumer. america's heartland. and i've got to tell you, this mall opened at 8:00. i'm hearing traffic was pretty heavy then, hit a bit of a lull overnight. some of the shoppers we talked to said they were out on thursday, they're going to take a break and come back this morning. we're already seeing the traffic pick back up again. so far, it seems like the headline around the country is slow and steady. not a lot of mania so far. i think those early thanksgiving hours really starting to help some of the retailers spread out the crowds, spread out some of the panic that we often see. consumers don't quite feel as worried about getting those deals this time around. ibm says that online sales already up 11.5%. that was through last night. the nrf expecting shoppers to hit the stores today. it appears the traffic has been first at the big box discount retailers and then to the mall. if we take a look at target, they'
go ahead, courtney. >> that's right, steve. hey, you know, it's actually a really good cross section of the midwest consumer. america's heartland. and i've got to tell you, this mall opened at 8:00. i'm hearing traffic was pretty heavy then, hit a bit of a lull overnight. some of the shoppers we talked to said they were out on thursday, they're going to take a break and come back this morning. we're already seeing the traffic pick back up again. so far, it seems like the headline around...
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Nov 21, 2013
11/13
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where i disagree with steve. he said i wouldn't recommend anybody reading the fed minutes, i think the other view, read the fed minutes. because the fed minutes have this enormous contrast. on the one hand, the economic discussion is really boring. it's all about how muted things are, how modest things are and basically they've done the same thing they've done almost every time since the crisis, which is lower immediate projections and increase further down. but the policy discussion is amazing. there are so many open questions. when do you taper? how do you taper? can you dealing taper from forward guidance? how do you communicate? should owe lower on reserves? what do you do with cost and risk? that part, becky, gives you a sense of how complicated the current stage of modern central banking is. that's important for the markets. that's why the trade that has worked so well, you've got to be more differentiated. and as mario said an hour and a half ago, and i totally agree, the safety net, the safety margin that
where i disagree with steve. he said i wouldn't recommend anybody reading the fed minutes, i think the other view, read the fed minutes. because the fed minutes have this enormous contrast. on the one hand, the economic discussion is really boring. it's all about how muted things are, how modest things are and basically they've done the same thing they've done almost every time since the crisis, which is lower immediate projections and increase further down. but the policy discussion is...
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Nov 19, 2013
11/13
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the target at sac capital was steve cohen. i think the outcome at sac capital was foreseeable if you look at all of the other cases that were part of the bigger sec capital probe. you're not going to have a situation with jpmorgan where you have a criminal indictment that turns the lobby of every jpmorgan office around the world into a state of the office health fund. you're tot going to shut down the bank. it's not going to happen. i think there is at least -- i don't want to say a handshake, but an understanding, we're not going to see a criminal case here. >> jacob, if you were called in by the independent director of the jpmorgan, so we're going to have a private meeting and we want to get your view on what the heck just happened here and how we should think about our own management and how we should think about them going forward, you would tell them what? >> i would tell them that this is a toxic, toxic, not a tough u.s. government, a toxic regulatory environment that's been created by the powers that -- by the powers th
the target at sac capital was steve cohen. i think the outcome at sac capital was foreseeable if you look at all of the other cases that were part of the bigger sec capital probe. you're not going to have a situation with jpmorgan where you have a criminal indictment that turns the lobby of every jpmorgan office around the world into a state of the office health fund. you're tot going to shut down the bank. it's not going to happen. i think there is at least -- i don't want to say a handshake,...
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Nov 20, 2013
11/13
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steve says there is no inflation. that was your comment. >> i didn't understand if it was sarcastic or realistic or what? >> is whirly bird janet used yet? >> in december, we could taper 85 billion. >> blow it out. all at once. >> what do you think? >> i have no idea. i think our taper and fed programs are a lot like fax policy in france right now. >> lovely. steve, you want to take that on? >> i want to talk about the retail sales numbers. we spent less at the gas pump. i don't want to do it. >> i know. >> i heard you say serenity now. i'm focused on the data. happy. here we go. we spent less money at gasoline station because we had a decline on prices. we spent it on sweaters. 1.4% increase on clothing. we had a decline in vehicles related to the labor day calendar et cetera. food and beverage up 1.3%. consumer may be healthier than we thought. part that feeds in, i'm wondering perhaps we get a revision higher in the gdp estimates for fourth quarter. there does not appear to be inflation in measured numbers we follo
steve says there is no inflation. that was your comment. >> i didn't understand if it was sarcastic or realistic or what? >> is whirly bird janet used yet? >> in december, we could taper 85 billion. >> blow it out. all at once. >> what do you think? >> i have no idea. i think our taper and fed programs are a lot like fax policy in france right now. >> lovely. steve, you want to take that on? >> i want to talk about the retail sales numbers. we...
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Nov 18, 2013
11/13
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the next steve jobs. you were talking about the drop box. who is the next steve jobs. i interviewed elan musk last week. >> he's totally like steve jobs. imaginative, driven. not sure he'll be successful. i love what he's doing. i love, you know, we talk about tesla. i think people who are breaking the bounds are really going to do it. but i like the two houstons. i like drew houston of drop box, that's somebody who has thought of a whole new idea. or houston frost. i think there are a lot of people who are sort of steve jobs like. they're saying the consumer doesn't know what the consumer wants until we invent it and show them. >> right. >> let's talk about the airlines. >> we're in a situation where airline stocks have finally taken off. you've converted people like bill miller and jim cramer who never wanted to touch these things before. and yet the complaints from passengers have increased over time. that was inevitable. >> the biggest thing for the airlines. you're talking about the emirates buying more boeings and stuff. we don't have a good national airline poli
the next steve jobs. you were talking about the drop box. who is the next steve jobs. i interviewed elan musk last week. >> he's totally like steve jobs. imaginative, driven. not sure he'll be successful. i love what he's doing. i love, you know, we talk about tesla. i think people who are breaking the bounds are really going to do it. but i like the two houstons. i like drew houston of drop box, that's somebody who has thought of a whole new idea. or houston frost. i think there are a...
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Nov 26, 2013
11/13
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steve is absolutely right about this. but the more that you commit to micromanage the decision in december based on a housing permits data or payroll data which is subject to revision, i think you're suggesting that you have great foresight as to what the economy's going to be in the next two and three years. this is not foresight that i think any economist has -- >> yeah, and you'd probably just say what he said, i guess, right, probably, rick? >> no, i have one question, mr. warsh, how important is it to divine signals on housing to try to interpret what's going on in the economy? is that, in your opinion, a priority? >> no, i don't think it is. i think housing is part of the economy. but housing and housing assets are only giving you one signal. there's a broader cross section of data from the consumer from the business, from trade and from exports. so this preoccupation with housing strikes me as as really quite dangerous. >> do you think there's any signals in the economy that are worth paying close attention to with
steve is absolutely right about this. but the more that you commit to micromanage the decision in december based on a housing permits data or payroll data which is subject to revision, i think you're suggesting that you have great foresight as to what the economy's going to be in the next two and three years. this is not foresight that i think any economist has -- >> yeah, and you'd probably just say what he said, i guess, right, probably, rick? >> no, i have one question, mr....
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Nov 4, 2013
11/13
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>> this is that -- >> how's that, steve? >> let me do it the way steve would do it. he'll ask you this later. what month will the taper begin? >> no, joe, you do this, i don't. >> i do that? >> this is a data-dependent program. and we're going to look at the data and make a decision at each meeting. and so i do think we've made substantial progress in labor markets, unemployment is down almost a full point from when we started this program in september 2012. we've got faster job growth to the tune of 40,000, 50,000 per month since we started the program as compared to the six months before the program started. >> but the last couple haven't been -- >> they haven't been -- they've been a little mixed recently. but i think this motion of cumulative progress is the one you want to think about. and we have had a lot of cumulative progress in labor markets. and every jobs report that continues to show more jobs being created and a tick down in the unemployment rate, is going to mean the probability of a taper goes up. >> plus, you've got skewed data. >> yeah. this report
>> this is that -- >> how's that, steve? >> let me do it the way steve would do it. he'll ask you this later. what month will the taper begin? >> no, joe, you do this, i don't. >> i do that? >> this is a data-dependent program. and we're going to look at the data and make a decision at each meeting. and so i do think we've made substantial progress in labor markets, unemployment is down almost a full point from when we started this program in september 2012....
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Nov 8, 2013
11/13
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rick, steve, mark, kevin, austan, did i forget anyone? andrew, thank you. >> it's been lovely being here. i appreciate it. thank you very much. >>> coming up -- shares of whole foods fell sharply after the company lowered guidance and reported quarterly revenue that missed expectations. up next, the co-ceo walter robb. going to talk about plans for expansion. and i've got to talk to him about all that whole paychex stuff. don't miss "squawk box" on tuesday, kicking off the dealbook conference in new york city. among the headliners, dan loeb and many others. that starts tuesday, 6:00 a.m. eastern time. back in a moment. at farmers, we make you smarter about insurance. because what you don't know, can hurt you. what if you didn't know that posting your travel plans online may attract burglars? [woman] off to hawaii! what if you didn't know that as the price of gold rises, so should the coverage on your jewelry? [prospector] ahh! what if you didn't know that kitty litter can help you out of a slippery situation? the more you know, the better
rick, steve, mark, kevin, austan, did i forget anyone? andrew, thank you. >> it's been lovely being here. i appreciate it. thank you very much. >>> coming up -- shares of whole foods fell sharply after the company lowered guidance and reported quarterly revenue that missed expectations. up next, the co-ceo walter robb. going to talk about plans for expansion. and i've got to talk to him about all that whole paychex stuff. don't miss "squawk box" on tuesday, kicking off...
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Nov 1, 2013
11/13
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>> what's weird is when i talked to senate -- >> you're steve liesman, right? >> i'm steve liesman. they say the benghazi thing is more worrisome than the rand paul thing because the benghazi thing is more out there in the public domain and more likely to gain -- >> i don't think it was handled well. >> but the connection, even though the rand paul thing makes more sense to tie yellen to the fed audit thing, benghazi and the fed and yellen, i don't really see the connection. >> considering you said where do we draw the line, is $50 trillion too big? >> you mean on the fed's balance sheet? well, you asked what is the number? >> i did ask rhetorically what is the number. >> that's what i'm talking about. >> why talk to me? >> i don't know. >> i think the same of you. let's start off 7:00 in the morning with quite a few insults. >> you know what i mean, though. if we're going to talk about something, we thought we were priming the pump. we didn't know the economy ran on qe forever. >> we didn't. >> wipe don't we bring in our distinct guests. >> did you know that? we don't just prime th
>> what's weird is when i talked to senate -- >> you're steve liesman, right? >> i'm steve liesman. they say the benghazi thing is more worrisome than the rand paul thing because the benghazi thing is more out there in the public domain and more likely to gain -- >> i don't think it was handled well. >> but the connection, even though the rand paul thing makes more sense to tie yellen to the fed audit thing, benghazi and the fed and yellen, i don't really see the...
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Nov 27, 2013
11/13
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steve, what do you think of the dynamic on the shipments? is this something to play closer attention to? >> you're trying to figure out what's going on with overall economic growth. orders tells yousz where it's going, shipments tells you where it's been. i don't do calculation until i get off set. you figure in the shipping and number tell us. shipments are down it will substract from overall growth. >> machinery, fabricated metals. this is not a one off. >> i don't know what the reason is for that unexpected up. >> sorry man. you already ready to head out for turkey. where are we? what do you make of numbers right now? >> couple of points. talking about october. it could be the business orders could have delayed orders. we're not going to really know where the orders stand until we see the november data. the second point i'd make is that there's a real disconnect here between labor markets and what's happening to cap x recently. over three months ending in october, your average monthly change this payroll, 202,000. you saw jobless claims a
steve, what do you think of the dynamic on the shipments? is this something to play closer attention to? >> you're trying to figure out what's going on with overall economic growth. orders tells yousz where it's going, shipments tells you where it's been. i don't do calculation until i get off set. you figure in the shipping and number tell us. shipments are down it will substract from overall growth. >> machinery, fabricated metals. this is not a one off. >> i don't know what...
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Nov 5, 2013
11/13
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let's get to steve liesman. good morning to you, steve. >> andrew, thanks very much. i'm here with eric rosengren. yesterday, eric, we interviewed the loser, st. louis fed president jim bullard. and now, what did boston fed do, fiscal probabilities to the red sox? were you a player in the world series victory? >> i'm afraid we can't take any credit, but it certainly was wonderful news that the boston red sox won. >> okay. let's talk about fed policy move very quickly. you said last night at the university of massachusetts that it didn't matter if the fed tapered in april or december. it's irrelevant for the market. >> so i didn't say it was irrelevant to the market. i did say that the difference between one quarter or two quarters wouldn't make a big difference to the total stock of securities that we held. so given that we're close to $4 trillion, the difference of one quarter one way or the other doesn't make a huge difference in the stock. >> you're not talking about eliminating qe. you're talking about reducing it, reducing it over the three or four-month period.
let's get to steve liesman. good morning to you, steve. >> andrew, thanks very much. i'm here with eric rosengren. yesterday, eric, we interviewed the loser, st. louis fed president jim bullard. and now, what did boston fed do, fiscal probabilities to the red sox? were you a player in the world series victory? >> i'm afraid we can't take any credit, but it certainly was wonderful news that the boston red sox won. >> okay. let's talk about fed policy move very quickly. you said...
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Nov 7, 2013
11/13
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steve liesman in studio. and i don't -- we've got to get to these numbers, rick. but i'll tell you, i figure you're thinking, these euros, misery loves company, we're going to race to the bottom with currency debasement. liesman comes over and says see how stupid they are, took them a long time to realize what the right thing to do was. i'd love to get you two guys going on that. >> bring it on. >> anyway, give us the numbers. >> all right. the survey says our first look at third quarter gdp, better than expected, 2.8%. and i'll tell you what, that is definitely more than i was looking for. let's go through the internals. consumption number, definitely on the weak side. we knew this, 1.5 versus our last look at 1.8. the price index triple our last look, actually. comes in at 1.9. also hotter, if you look at the personal consumption expenditure quarter over quarter, 1.4. so to summarize, the headline numbers definitely hot. the consumption is not and the prices are a little hotter than we expected. 336 on initial jobless claims, that's a drop of 9,000 from 345,000.
steve liesman in studio. and i don't -- we've got to get to these numbers, rick. but i'll tell you, i figure you're thinking, these euros, misery loves company, we're going to race to the bottom with currency debasement. liesman comes over and says see how stupid they are, took them a long time to realize what the right thing to do was. i'd love to get you two guys going on that. >> bring it on. >> anyway, give us the numbers. >> all right. the survey says our first look at...
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Nov 12, 2013
11/13
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you know steve cohen, i believe. what do you make of what has just happened? >> not very -- i don't -- when you say "just happened" has it been -- have they fined him already sniff read it is coming. no, it has happened a done deal. $1.8 billion. they fined his firm, not fined him yet or criminally prosecuted him but they may, still. >> i think they will. you think they would hesitate a millisecond if they could get a direct cause, an action from him that was indictable? you think they wouldn't indict him in the reason that they haven't, i suppose, is because they can't. now, maybe they will am so the point, they can. what is interesting to me, again, where is the 1 billion 8 going? >> i -- >> i don't think it's going to any individual people who were "harmed". >> you note answer to that. >>> it goes into the general funds. >> and therefore we shouldn't prosecute people or what -- >> wait a second that's not prosecution, you should prosecute if you have evidence and if you can nail it. i actually think the idea of settlement is a very bad concept. i think they
you know steve cohen, i believe. what do you make of what has just happened? >> not very -- i don't -- when you say "just happened" has it been -- have they fined him already sniff read it is coming. no, it has happened a done deal. $1.8 billion. they fined his firm, not fined him yet or criminally prosecuted him but they may, still. >> i think they will. you think they would hesitate a millisecond if they could get a direct cause, an action from him that was indictable?...
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Nov 25, 2013
11/13
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company veteran, dug mcmillon will succeed steve duke. you were just talking with andrew about why you would do this days before theid
company veteran, dug mcmillon will succeed steve duke. you were just talking with andrew about why you would do this days before theid